Maybe this is justified, and Wall Street has already taken a historically severe beating this year.īy mid-October the S&P 500 was down 25% and ripe for a bounce. This is backed up by the recent stampede into cash and defensive nature of broad market positioning.Ī low SKEW shows a low perceived risk of a rare, hard-to-predict 'black swan' event on the horizon that will sideswipe markets. One, investors loaded up so heavily on options protection at the start of the year that they gradually unwound these hedges even as the bear market unfolded and stocks fell.Īlternatively, they have cut their risk exposure throughout the brutal year to the point that they are now underweight risky assets. What this portends for stocks going into year end is unclear, but given how low volatility is just now it is reasonable to assume investor demand for protection and hedging will rise.įrom the fastest pace of interest rate increases in decades and swirling political uncertainty, to recession risks and a bleak corporate earnings outlook, there are plenty of storms investors should be shielding their stock holdings from. ORLANDO, Fla., Nov 8 (Reuters) - The traditional inverse relationship between stocks and options -based measures of implied volatility has broken down in recent weeks, and in some cases is now the weakest in years.
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